A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
The 25% U.S. tariff announced for auto imports is raising a ruckus across the globe, from Tokyo and Seoul to Wolfsburg to Detroit, as car makers warn of price hikes and ponder shifting their manufacturing base to deal with the upheaval.
The shares of Japanese and South Korean automakers – pillars of the two powerhouse Asian economies – sank on Friday in a brutal end to the week.
Almost 3 trillion yen ($20 billion) has been wiped from the market value of Japan’s top three carmakers – Toyota, Honda and Nissan – in three trading sessions this week.
Futures suggest European markets are looking at a dour Friday with the region’s automakers stuck in the spotlight. The European automobiles and parts index was at its lowest level since early December and is poised for a sixth straight week in the red.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo has drawn fierce criticism from politicians and industry executives across the globe. Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen said the entire automotive industry as well as customers will have to “bear the negative consequences”.
It’s decision time for car makers, who must now determine whether to localise more production in the U.S., swallow the costs of tariffs, or pass those costs on to consumers.
Volvo Cars, Volkswagen’s Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai have already said they will relocate portions of their production.
Ferrari, which makes all of its cars in Italy, said it would raise prices of some models by as much as 10%.
It seems that all big automakers are facing an uncertain future. Well, almost all. Shares of Texas-based EV maker Tesla largely shrugged off the worries, as its production for the U.S. market largely comes from domestic plants, with less reliance than other automakers on foreign-made parts.
Investor attention is now turning to the reciprocal U.S. tariffs to be announced next week, with markets latching onto Trump’s suggestion that the levies might be lenient. That leaves a lot of room for a surprise – either pleasant or nasty.
Amidst all this gloom, the rally in gold prices is showing no signs of letting up, cracking through yet another record high on safe-haven flows. Gold has stayed comfortably above $3,000 per ounce since breaching that threshold in mid-March.
The yellow metal has risen more than 17% in the January-March period, on course for its best quarterly performance since 1986.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
Economic events: UK GDP data for Q4, UK retail sales for February, France inflation data for March, Germany labour data for March, euro zone sentiment survey data for March
(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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